Despite the growing prowess of AI forecasters, top human experts say they have no plans to retire. Instead, they envision a future of collaboration, a sentiment crystallized by third-place finisher Lubos Saloky after the Metaculus Cup, where a British AI secured a top-ten spot. “If you can’t beat them, merge with them,” he said, capturing the spirit of adaptation in the face of technological change.
The competition saw ManticAI’s system place eighth, a result that highlighted the machine’s rapidly improving analytical capabilities. The AI’s strength lies in its ability to persistently work on dozens of problems, tirelessly processing new information—a scale of effort that is superhuman.
However, human experts are not conceding the field. They recognize that they still bring unique and valuable skills to the table. According to industry leaders like Warren Hatch of Good Judgment, humans retain a crucial edge in forecasts that require deep judgment, especially when data is sparse or ambiguous. They are also better at spotting logical flaws in complex, narrative-based predictions.
The dominant view is that the most powerful forecasting will emerge from a synthesis of these complementary strengths. The ideal future involves human-AI teams, where the AI acts as a powerful analytical assistant, handling the immense data processing and continuous monitoring tasks. The human expert would then guide the process, interpret the outputs, and apply the final layer of intuition and logical scrutiny.
Saloky’s comment reflects this pragmatic optimism. Rather than viewing AI as a threat to their profession, leading forecasters see it as a transformative tool. The goal is not to compete with the machine, but to partner with it, creating a hybrid intelligence that is far more powerful and accurate than either human or AI could be alone.
No Retirement Plans: Human Forecasters See a Collaborative Future with AI
